IBhange Lomhlaba linciphise isilinganiso sokukhula komnotho womhlaba waba ngu-2.5% ngonyaka ka-2026, futhi likhiphe isixwayiso ngengozi yokwehla okunamandla uma imfundo yamandla iqhubeka. Lesi silinganiso esisha, esimenyezelwe ngoLwesine, uJuni 11, embikweni we-Global Economic Prospects, simele ukwehla uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso sangaphambilini futhi sikhombisa ukuthi ukukhula komnotho wehlile. Isikhungo sikhomba impi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi njengembangela enkulu yalokhu kuhlaziywa kabusha, ngenxa yokuthi lo mpi ukhuphule amanani amandla, wavuselela ukwehla kwamandla emali, futhi wakhuphula ukungaqiniseki ezimakethe zezimali. Ngokombiko weReuters, ibhange liphinde laxwayisa ukuthi, esimweni esibi, ukukhula kungawa kufinyelele ku-1.3%. Lesi silinganiso esisha sikhombisa ukuthi izinkomba ezimbili kwezintathu zomnotho zancishiselwa phansi kusukela ngoJanuwari, kuveza ukuthi inkinga isibe ngumhlaba wonke futhi ayisekho nje endaweni eyodwa.
Izizathu zokwehliswa kwesilinganiso somnotho womhlaba
Impi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi iphakathi nendawo esinqumweni seBhange Lomhlaba lokunciphisa isilinganiso sika-2026. Lo mpi ubangela ukukhuphuka okukhulu kwamanani amandla, waguqula izinto ezilindelekile zokwehla kwamandla emali, futhi waqinisa umbono wokuqinisa imali emazweni ahlukahlukene. Isikhungo silinganisela ukuthi iBrent izobe iba ngu-$94 ibhareli ngenkathi, okungu-36% ngaphezu kwezinga lika-2025, icabanga ukuthi ukuphazamiseka okukhulu ekulethweni kuzoncishiswa kwaze kwaba nguJulayi. Nokho, ibhange likucacisile ukuthi isimo singashintsha ngokushesha uma izingozi ziqhubeka. Ngaphandle kwamandla, ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto zokuchumisa nakho kushiwo njengomthelela owengeziwe wengcindezi emnothweni womhlaba, othinta ukukhiqizwa kwezolimo, izindleko zokudla, kanye nesabelomali semindeni nohulumeni.
Umthelela wempi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi emandleni
Lo mbiko ugqamisa ukuthi ukuphazamiseka kwemizila yamasu, njenge-Strait of Hormuz, kwandise ingozi yokuphazamiseka ekugelezeni kukawoyela negesi. Lokhu kukhuphuka kwamandla kwenza izindleko zokuthutha emazweni ngamazwe zikhuphuke futhi kunciphisa ukubikezela emabhizinisini nasohulumeni. Isilinganiso esiyisisekelo sicabanga ukuphazamiseka okunamandla kwaze kwaba nguJulayi, kodwa isimo singaba sibi kakhulu uma umthelela wehluleka ukuphela. Esimweni esibi kakhulu, ukukhula komnotho womhlaba kungawa kufinyelele ku-2.1% futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuke kufinyelele ku-4.4%, kanti iBrent ingafinyelela umndeni wama-US$115 ibhareli. Ngokunye okubi nakakhulu, lapho umthelela uthinta izimakethe zezimali, umnotho womhlaba ungase wehlise isivinini ufinyelele ku-1.3%. Amazwe angenisa amandla avikelwe kakhulu, ngoba izindleko zangaphandle ziyakhula, ukushoda kwezentengiselwano kuba kubi, futhi ingcindezi yesabelomali iyaqina.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke kugqugquzela amabhange amakhulu
Eminye idatha eyadonsa ukunaka kwaba isilinganiso sokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke ngo-4.0% ngonyaka ka-2026, ngaphezu kuka-3.3% orekhodwa ngo-2025. IBhange Lomhlaba lithi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuye kwahamba kancane, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamandla okubangelwa ukungezwani eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela kunomthelela ngokushesha ezintweni zokuthutha, ekudleni, embonini, emithwalweni, nasemanani okugcina emikhiqizweni nasezinsizeni. Lokhu kuholela ekutheni amabhange amakhulu agcine amanani emali ephakeme isikhathi eside, enza izikweletu zibe nzima futhi anciphise ukusetshenziswa kwemali. Lo mbiko ugqamisa ukuthi umgomo womphakathi womhlaba wonke uzodinga ukulinganisa izinto ezimbili eziphambili: ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali nokugcina izinga elithile lokusekela ukukhula.
Izwe elisafufusa: ezisengozini kakhulu esimweni esisha
Izomnotho ezisafufusa ziphezulu kwabathintekayo kakhulu yilokhu okusha. Isilinganiso sokukhula kwala mazwe sehle safinyelela ku-3.6% ngonyaka ka-2026, okuyizinga elibuthakathaka kakhulu kusukela esikhathini sangemva kobhubhane. IBhange Lomhlaba liyaqaphela ukuthi amazwe amaningi anamholo aphansi naphakathi awakakwazi ukuthola umhlabathi olahlekile eminyakeni edlule, futhi ubuthakathaka bokukhula buvimbe ukusondelana phakathi kwamazinga emali engenayo emazweni asafufusa nalawo athuthukile. Lokhu kusho ukuthi igebe phakathi kwezifunda ezinothe nezimpofu lingahlala likhulu isikhathi eside. Lapho izwe elisafufusa likhula kancane, ukuhweba ngamazwe ngamazwe kuyancipha futhi ingcindezi emalini yendawo iyanda, njengoba abatshali-zimali bekhetha izimpahla eziphephile ezikhathini zokungazinzi.
Umthelela wezifunda ongalingani: iMelika, iYurophu, iShayina neNdiya
Lo mbiko weBhange Lomhlaba ukhombisa futhi ukuthi imithelela ayisatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo phakathi kwemikhakha emikhulu yomnotho. I-United States yagcinwa ngesilinganiso sokukhula ngo-2.2% ngonyaka ka-2026, kanti indawo ye-euro ilindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngo-0.8% nje kuphela, ngaphansi kuka-1.4% orekhodwa ngo-2025. I-Japan nayo kulindeleke ukuthi ilahlekelwe isivinini, ngokukhula okulinganiselwa ku-0.7%. IShayina, ngesikhathi esifanayo, isilinganiso sayo sehliselwe phansi safinyelela ku-4.2%, ngemuva kokukhula ngo-5% ngo-2025. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-India iyaqhubeka nokuba umehluko omuhle omkhulu, ngesilinganiso sokukhula ngo-6.6% ngonyaka ka-2026, igcina isikhundla sayo somnotho omkhulu onamandla kakhulu emhlabeni. Noma kunjalo, i-India ayivikelekile esimweni somhlaba wonke esibuthakathaka, ngoba ukuhweba, amanani amandla, namandla ezimali omhlaba nakho kuthinta ukusebenza kwayo.
Amathemba onyaka ka-2027 no-2028: ukululama okuhamba kancane noma izingozi ezengeziwe?
Yize kunesimo sokuqaphela, iBhange Lomhlaba lisabikezela ukuthuthuka okuthile kusukela ngonyaka ka-2027. Okulindeleke ukukhula komnotho womhlaba ngo-2.8% ngonyaka ka-2027 no-2028, nakuba lokhu kuhlala kungaphansi kwesilinganiso esingu-3.2% esabonwa eminyakeni yama-2010. Isikhungo sithi umnotho womhlaba awunamandla amakhulu namuhla kuno-2008 futhi kuno-2018, sikhombisa ukuthi imithelela eqongelelwe yezinkinga zakamuva ayikakajulwa ngokugcwele. Phakathi kwezinto ezichaza lobu buthakathaka kukhona ukwehla kokukhula kwabantu, isivinini esincane sokutshalwa kwezimali okuyimfihlo, ukwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali komphakathi, ukukhuphuka kwezikweletu zomphakathi, nokulahlekelwa ngamandla okuhweba ngamazwe ngamazwe. Lo mbiko uphinde waqaphela ukuthi ukusetshenziswa okubanzi kobuhlakani bokwenziwa kungaletha ukukhululeka okuthile esikhathini esiphakathi, kodwa ngeke kwanele ukunxesha ngokugcwele izingozi zesikhathi esifushane ezilethwa amandla abiza kakhulu, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, nokungaqiniseki kwezombangazwe.
Ukwehliswa kwesilinganiso sokukhula komnotho womhlaba waba ngu-2.5% ngonyaka ka-2026 kukhombisa ukuthi umnotho womhlaba ungene esigabeni sokuqaphela okukhulu. IBhange Lomhlaba likucacisa ukuthi isimo singaqhubeka nokuba sibi uma impi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi iqhubeka futhi amandla eqhubeka nokucindezela. Esikhundleni sokululama okuqondile, okubonakalayo umnotho womhlaba osengozini yezinkinga futhi ophawuleka ngokwehla kwamandla emali okuqhubekayo, amanani emali aphezulu, nokukhula okungaphansi kwalokho obekulindelekile. Kubatshali-zimali namabhizinisi, isiphetho esiyinhloko ukuthi unyaka ka-2026 uvame ukuqhutshwa ukungazinzi, kanti izinqumo zamabhange amakhulu, intengo kawoyela, ukwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nokuthuthuka kwezombangazwe kuba nomthelela omkhulu emalini, ezimakethe, ezintweni ezithengiswayo, nasezikweletini emazweni ngamazwe.